Michelle ThompsonThe number of ships set to reach the Port of Los Angeles next week has fallen nearly 33% compared to the same time last year.
Donald Trump’s increasingly unpredictable trade war has caused a decline in shipments to the US’s key ports, with growing concerns over a potential recession in the world’s largest economy.
In the latest sign of how the US president’s tariff policies are affecting the economy, data shows that the number of vessels expected at the Port of Los Angeles next week is nearly 30% lower than the same period last year.
Port Optimizer’s data, compiled from ocean carrier manifests, indicates an 11% drop in arrivals this week compared to the same week in 2024. Separate figures from Vizion, a data provider, reveal that container bookings from China to the US had fallen by 45% by mid-April compared to a year ago.
Economists warn that Trump’s trade disputes will slow global trade significantly, raise consumer prices, and increase the risk of a recession. Washington has imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, as well as a 10% border tax on products from other countries, with some exceptions.
Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested there might be a possible “path” to a tariff deal with China following discussions with Chinese officials at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings.
Analysis by Apollo Global Management, a US private equity firm, showed a significant drop in new business orders since Trump’s “liberation day” announcement on April 2.
Torsten Sløk, Apollo’s chief economist, stated that new orders are falling, capital expenditures are declining, inventories were building before tariffs were applied, and companies are revising their earnings expectations downward.
For households, consumer confidence has reached record lows, pre-tariff purchases were rushed, and international tourism is slowing.
More US CEOs are expressing concern about the consequences of Trump’s tariff policies. The heads of Walmart and Target, two of the largest US retailers, have warned that his actions could disrupt supply chains, increase prices, and empty store shelves.
Analysts suggest that the latest shipping data, updated daily, signals worsening fallout. However, some of the decrease can be attributed to a slowdown following the surge in imports ahead of Trump’s inauguration, as businesses anticipated tariff imposition.
The US trade deficit reached an all-time high in January, as businesses accelerated imports before tariffs took effect.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading platform XTB, noted that US port authorities and logistics firms are already expecting sharp drops in Chinese shipments. She added that demand for Chinese goods has plunged since mid-April, with US businesses quickly adjusting to the tariffs. The decline in container bookings will significantly affect Chinese companies. However, Zhao Chenxin, China’s state planner’s vice head, expressed confidence that China would still meet its 2025 economic growth target of around 5%.
The San Pedro Bay ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which handle nearly a third of the US’s containerized trade and are the primary entry point for goods from China, are particularly affected. These ports are crucial for imports such as cars, computers, and smartphones.
Sløk highlighted that with sea containers taking 20 to 40 days to reach the US from China, there will be a ripple effect on demand for US trucking from mid-May, potentially leading to empty shelves and layoffs in distribution and retail.
This could result in a recession by the summer, Sløk warned.
Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman compared the trade collapse to the downturn during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, due to rising uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies.
“But this time, there’s no virus to blame. It’s all about Donald Trump,” Krugman wrote on Substack. “This time, there’s no vaccine coming to our rescue. We’re stuck with this chaos agent for three years and three months.”
