Expectations for US inflation were raised in November

Customers were concerned that the slowing inflation would turn around in the next months or years, the poll director said.

The final results of the University of Michigan consumer survey, which were made public on Wednesday, show that inflation expectations in the US were raised in November.

The level of year-ahead inflation forecasts was revised up from the 4.4% level in the preliminary findings issued two weeks ago, reaching a peak of 4.5% in November—the highest figure since April 2023.

The graph displayed increases from September’s 3.2% reading to October’s 4.2% level.

Expectations for long-term inflation increased as well; they went from 3.0% to 3.2% this month, which was the highest level since 2011.

“These expectations have risen in spite of the fact that consumers have taken note of the continued slowdown in inflation; consumers appear worried that the softening of inflation could reverse in the months and years ahead,” Joanne Hsu, director of Surveys of Consumers, said

The final readings showed that the index of consumer mood fell 2.5 percentage points from 63.8 in October to 61.3 in November.

The market anticipated that the index will register at 60.4.

“While this marks the fourth consecutive month of declines, November’s reading reflects a balance of factors, some of which improved while others worsened,” Hsu stated.

“A noticeable decline in anticipated business circumstances countered more positive current assessments and expectations of personal finances. Specifically, long-term business conditions fell by 15%, reaching their lowest point since July 2022,” she continued.

The final survey results showed that the indicator of current economic circumstances decreased by 2.3 percentage points from 70.6 in October to 68.3 in November.

Over that time, the consumer expectations index dropped 2.5 points, from 59.3 to 56.8.