Michelle ThompsonAmid ongoing presidential primaries and the likelihood of a 2020 general election rematch, a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS suggests that former President Donald Trump holds a slight lead over President Joe Biden in a closely contested national race.
The survey highlights the mixed sentiments of voters regarding the leading candidates. A significant majority of both Democrats and Republicans express contentment with their respective party’s candidate if they were to face each other again. However, a notable minority of voters express a desire for alternative options should Biden and Trump become the official nominees.
In summary, the poll reveals that if a hypothetical election between the two were held today, 49% of registered voters would support Trump, 45% would support Biden, and 5% would opt for another candidate. These figures align with previous CNN polling from the fall. The demographic dynamics of the contest show a consistent pattern, with a significant education gap being the most prominent divide, and smaller differences by age or race compared to recent presidential elections.
Biden’s support among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups, such as younger voters and voters of color, has not seen significant growth since the fall. Younger voters remain evenly split, with 49% supporting Biden and 46% favoring Trump, while voters of color favor Biden by 57% to Trump’s 35%.
Most voters on both sides of this hypothetical matchup tend to frame their choice more as a vote for or against Trump. 68% of Biden supporters indicate that they are voting against Trump rather than for Biden, while 60% of Trump supporters express a preference for Trump rather than opposition to Biden. As we enter the new election year, there are few signs of substantial shifts in how the public perceives either candidate. Both Trump and Biden continue to receive unfavorable ratings, with 59% of Americans holding an unfavorable view of Biden and 55% having a negative view of Trump. Additionally, a significant portion of the public believes that Biden does not deserve re-election (66%). Trump’s views and policies are generally seen as “too extreme” by 63% of respondents, while Biden’s views and policies are viewed as “generally mainstream” by 61%.
The poll also indicates that a victory by either candidate would leave a majority of the nation dissatisfied, with a significant portion expressing discontent.
Respondents were asked whether they would prefer to see another candidate from their own party run as an independent if Biden were the Democratic nominee and Trump the Republican nominee. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 43% would like to see another Democrat run independently alongside a Biden-Trump matchup, while 40% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would prefer a Republican candidate to run independently in such a scenario.
It is worth noting that while pre-election polls often show significant support for third-party or independent candidates, such candidacies typically do not gain as much traction in reality.
Party loyalty plays a significant role in the poll, with broad majorities indicating contentment if their party’s likely nominee were to win. Approximately 8 in 10 GOP-aligned voters express satisfaction or enthusiasm for another Trump presidency, while around three-quarters of Democratic-aligned voters hold similarly positive sentiments about a second Biden term.
As of now, neither Biden nor Trump has secured their party’s nomination. In another hypothetical general election scenario, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley leads Biden with 52% support compared to 39% for Biden. The choices of voters in this matchup are primarily influenced by their views of Biden, with 63% of his supporters favoring him more than opposing Haley, while 63% of her supporters prioritize opposing Biden over supporting her. Notably, many Americans do not have a well-formed opinion of Haley, with 42% indicating an unfavorable view compared to 25% favorability.
In terms of the Republican nomination for president in 2024, Trump holds a significant lead over Haley among Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, with 70% favoring Trump, 19% favoring Haley, and 8% choosing another candidate.
Republicans express confidence in Trump’s chances of winning a second term, with 88% of Republican-aligned voters believing he has a realistic shot at the presidency if nominated, while only 29% see Biden as having a realistic chance. A majority (72%) of Republican-aligned voters believe that the party has a better chance of winning the White House with Trump as the nominee, and 57% express enthusiasm at the prospect of him returning to the presidency. Additionally, most Republican-aligned voters perceive Trump as generally mainstream (62%), rather than too extreme (37%).
On the other hand, Haley faces more skepticism among potential Republican voters regarding her chances of winning the presidency. Only 54% of GOP-aligned voters see her as having a realistic shot at winning, and a mere 16% express enthusiasm about her potential presidency. Haley’s favorability rating among Republican and Republican-leaning voters lags significantly behind Trump’s, with 31% holding a favorable view of Haley compared to 71% favorability for Trump.
Concerns about Trump as a candidate among Republican-aligned voters tend to revolve around his personality and image rather than his policies. The percentage of those concerned about his abrasive or disrespectful nature has increased from 8% to 15% since the previous summer. Other concerns include fears of attacks from or inability to work with Democrats (8%), legal issues or possible convictions (8%), a negative public image and widespread dislike (6%), and concerns about election rigging (5%). Approximately 19% of respondents claim to have no concerns about Trump as a candidate.
Among Democrats, while most believe Biden has a realistic shot at winning a second term (80% of Democratic-aligned voters), a significant portion also see Trump as a legitimate contender for the White House (61%). A slight majority (53%) of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters believe that their party has a better chance of winning in 2024 with a different candidate at the top of the ticket.
Concerns about Biden as a candidate within the Democratic base primarily center on his age. Nearly half (46%) express concerns about his age, while 5% mention concerns about his mental competence or sharpness, 2% worry about his ability to handle the job, and 2% are concerned about his ability to survive a second term. Around 3% cite concerns about ageism and how his age is perceived by others. Additionally, 5% express concerns about his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, an issue that wasn’t prominent in previous polls conducted by CNN. Among Democratic-aligned voters under 45 years old, the issue of Israel-Hamas conflict is more likely to be their top concern compared to older Democratic-aligned voters (9% vs. 3%).
The poll suggests that the enthusiasm gap, which favored Republicans in previous polling, may have narrowed. In the latest poll, 63% of Republican-aligned voters claim to be highly motivated to vote in the 2024 presidential election, down from 71% in the fall. Among Democrats, the percentage of highly motivated voters has remained relatively stable, with 58% expressing high motivation compared to 61% in the fall.
Overall, Biden’s approval rating among all adults stands at 38% approval and 62% disapproval, a trend that has persisted for much of the past year. Democrats are more positive toward his job performance (78% approval), but a smaller majority of Democrats believe he deserves a second term (69%). Independents largely disapprove of his job performance (66%), and 70% believe he does not deserve a second term in the White House.
Haley significantly lags behind Trump by about 50 points when Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters are asked about their preference for the GOP nomination for president in 2024. Specifically, 70% of these voters express a preference for Trump, while only 19% favor Haley, and 8% mention someone else as their choice.
Republicans, overall, have a high degree of confidence in Trump’s chances of winning a second term as president. A substantial 88% of Republican-aligned voters believe he has a realistic shot at the presidency if he becomes the nominee, in contrast to only 29% who see Biden as having a realistic chance of winning. About 72% of Republican-aligned voters believe that the Republican Party has a better chance of winning the White House with Trump at the top of the ticket than with another candidate. Furthermore, 57% of these voters express enthusiasm at the prospect of Trump returning to the presidency. The majority of Republican-aligned voters perceive Trump as being generally mainstream (62%), rather than too extreme (37%).
In contrast, Haley faces a more pessimistic outlook among potential Republican voters regarding her chances of winning the presidency. Only 54% of GOP-aligned voters see her as having a realistic shot at winning, and a mere 16% would be enthusiastic about her becoming the next president. Furthermore, her favorability rating among Republican and Republican-leaning voters significantly lags behind Trump’s, with only 31% holding a favorable view of Haley compared to 71% who have a positive view of Trump.
Concerns about Trump as a candidate among Republican-aligned voters remain primarily centered on his personality and image rather than his policies. The proportion of those who express concerns about his abrasive or disrespectful nature has risen from 8% in the late summer to 15% currently. Other concerns include fears of attacks from or inability to work with Democrats (8%), worries about his legal situation or possible convictions (8%), his negative public image and widespread dislike (6%), and concerns about election rigging (5%). Approximately 19% of respondents indicate that they have no concerns about Trump as a candidate.
On the Democratic side, while most Democrats believe that Biden has a realistic shot at winning a second term (80% of Democratic-aligned voters hold this view), a significant portion also see Trump as a legitimate contender for the presidency (61%). Additionally, a narrow majority of Democrats (53% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters) believe that their party has a better chance of winning in 2024 with a different candidate leading the ticket.
Democratic concerns about Biden predominantly revolve around his age. Nearly half (46%) cite his age as their primary concern about him as a presidential candidate. In addition, 5% express concerns about his mental competence or sharpness, 2% worry about his ability to handle the job, and 2% are concerned that he may not survive a second term. Approximately 3% express concerns about ageism and how his age is perceived by others.
And a new problem has surfaced concerning Biden: 5% say his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict is their main concern, an issue that did not exist when CNN last surveyed on the subject in August. Younger Democratic-aligned voters are more likely than older voters to list Israel as their main concern (9% vs. 3%).
The survey, however, implies that an enthusiasm gap that emerged for Republicans in polls last autumn may have reduced. According to the current poll, 63% of Republican-aligned voters are very eager to vote in the 2024 presidential election, down from 71% in the autumn. Among Democrats, the share is deeply
Emily Martinez
