Michelle ThompsonThe second-biggest economy in the world will expand by 5.4% this year and 4.6% next.
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its estimates for China’s economic growth in 2023 and 2024.
The fund released a statement indicating that it had revised its October forecast upward by 0.4 percentage points and now projects the Chinese economy to grow 5.4% this year, largely due of a robust post-virus rebound.
The forecast for the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 was revised up from 4.2% to 4.6%.
The fund stated that “continuing weakness in the property market and subdued external demand” are the reasons for the growth slowdown anticipated for the upcoming year.
Following an IMF team’s October 26–November 7 visit to China, the changes were made.
It further stated that recent policy announcements and a stronger-than-expected third-quarter outturn were the main drivers of the revised predictions.
As the output gap closes, the IMF predicted that China’s core inflation will rise to 2.1% by the end of 2024.
China’s annual core inflation rate, which does not include prices for food and energy, was 0.8% in September, according to the most recent statistics released by the statistical office.
IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath stated, “Over the medium term, growth is projected to gradually decline to about 3.5% by 2028 amid headwinds from weak productivity and population aging.”
